How We Got Here
Before pointing the screen at today's market, we test it on the past. This page is that test. The rule is simple: a score only counts facts that were filed by the date it was scored. Nothing from the future gets in.
Did the screen work?
76
missed runner
missed runner
44
CAUGHT EARLY - big run
CAUGHT EARLY - big run
21
caught - ran
caught - ran
10
caught - didn't run
caught - didn't run
2
caught - ran (late)
caught - ran (late)
Yes, and the misses are on the record too. From the 2012 to 2016 cohorts, the companies that
passed the screen did far better than the market over the next ten years. NVDA is the headline: flagged in 2012, up
about 63,000%. KLAC, MSFT, AMAT, CTAS, COST and others were flagged early and ran. The top fifth of the screen
returned roughly 14x vs 5.6x for the market.
Not perfect. A few flagged names did not run. TripAdvisor is the honest example: it passed all five checks in 2013,
then fell 87%. It stays on the record instead of being hidden.
The full retrospective table
Best bets first, cut off before the middling and losing tail. "Realized" is the return from the period start to the latest price.
| Ticker | Sector | First top | Catch /5 | Realized | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Information Tech | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| KLAC | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CTAS | Industrials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| TER | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MA | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NFLX | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MSFT | Information Tech | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| V | Information Tech | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MCO | Financials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| COST | Consumer Staples | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MSI | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NDAQ | Financials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SHW | Consumer Discret | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MCK | Health Care | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| UNH | Health Care | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| TMO | Health Care | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| GILD | Health Care | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| VRSN | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SNA | Consumer Discret | 2014 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| UNP | Industrials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| WMT | Consumer Staples | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CSCO | Information Tech | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CME | Financials | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SBUX | Consumer Discret | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| ADBE | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MRK | Health Care | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NSC | Industrials | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| AON | Financials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| JNJ | Health Care | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CRM | Information Tech | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| HON | Industrials | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| QCOM | Information Tech | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| PAYX | Information Tech | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| ORCL | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| PSA | Financials | 2014 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| NTAP | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| ACN | Information Tech | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| MCD | Consumer Discret | 2012 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| SPG | Financials | 2011 | 3/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| BIIB | Health Care | 2011 | 5/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| T | Telecommunicatio | 2011 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| TXT | Industrials | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| CL | Consumer Staples | 2014 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| FISV | Information Tech | 2013 | 4/5 | CAUGHT EARLY - big run | CAUGHT EARLY - big run |
| GOOG | Information Tech | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| AMGN | Health Care | 2017 | 5/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| JCI | Consumer Discret | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| EBAY | Information Tech | 2017 | 3/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| RSG | Industrials | 2015 | 5/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| NI | Utilities | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| ICE | Financials | 2016 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| WEC | Utilities | 2017 | 5/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| BSX | Health Care | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| LEN | Consumer Discret | 2016 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| UNM | Financials | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| PPG | Materials | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| CMCSA | Consumer Discret | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| VZ | Telecommunicatio | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| TROW | Financials | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| IBM | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| OMC | Consumer Discret | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| AN | Consumer Discret | 2016 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| HPQ | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| IVZ | Financials | 2014 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| AKAM | Information Tech | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - ran | caught - ran |
| WM | Industrials | 2018 | 4/5 | caught - ran (late) | caught - ran (late) |
| LH | Health Care | 2018 | 4/5 | caught - ran (late) | caught - ran (late) |
| FCX | Materials | 2018 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| BEN | Financials | 2011 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| BWA | Consumer Discret | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| BXP | Financials | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| SLB | Energy | 2013 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| TDC | Information Tech | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| CCL | Consumer Discret | 2017 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| FMC | Materials | 2012 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| NWL | Consumer Discret | 2015 | 4/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| TRIP | Consumer Discret | 2013 | 5/5 | caught - didn't run | caught - didn't run |
| LLY | Health Care | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AMAT | Information Tech | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MPC | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PHM | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PGR | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| TJX | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DHI | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CAT | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HD | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| JPM | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NOC | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AMP | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| GWW | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DE | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MAR | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SUN | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ALL | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MS | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| TRV | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AIZ | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ADP | Information Tech | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NEE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CSX | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CAH | Health Care | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| OKE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CINF | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HUM | Health Care | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| WMB | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CB | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SCHW | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| GD | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NRG | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| VMC | Materials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HIG | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AEE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AEP | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PFG | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PNC | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| COF | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AFL | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ATI | Materials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| STT | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CMS | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DTE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| YUM | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ETR | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| BAC | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PCAR | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| XEL | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| GE | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SRE | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| FDX | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| NTRS | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| EOG | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CVX | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| SO | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| EXPD | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| COP | Energy | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| DUK | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| TGT | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ADM | Consumer Staples | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CNP | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| IR | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| KEY | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| MET | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| ED | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PEG | Utilities | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| LUV | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| CVS | Consumer Staples | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| C | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| USB | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| PRU | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| R | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| BA | Industrials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| AIV | Financials | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
| HAS | Consumer Discret | - | None/5 | missed runner | missed runner |
Every number recomputes from SEC filings. Machine readable: picklog.json.